My last comment on Facebook elicited various uncomplimentary comments about Eric Pickles that are best not repeated. It
is perhaps worth reflecting, however, that Mr Pickles seems to have very little respect for strategic planning
- the dismembering of planning guidance is illustrative. The approach taken yesterday also reinforces a growing impression that some politicians have a contemptuous approach to sound science. Thus, I
suspect in a few years time we will be looking at major Government
expenditure to provide flood defences to ill-placed developments that
have been fast-tracked to avoid any serious environmental and social scrutiny!
Moving on, I note that excerpts of the 2008 Parrett Catchment Flood Management Plan are being selectively quoted. I have not managed
to access this document but I have found the 2012 version. In this
version there is discussion of a 1% annual probability flood (in other
words a 1:100 year event) and the use of parts of the Levels as flood
storage. So, it is clear that there was already an acceptance (within
the EA and by implication Ministers) that cost-effective flood risk
management would be delivered by flood storage. I have a feeling that
these sorts of events have happened at several points over the past 20
years. This year is different and as yet I have not found any indication
of the return period estimate for the current flooding. We can be
pretty sure it exceeds the 1: 100 year level, and in all probability
exceeds a 1:200year event – which is generally the maximum that is
socio-economically viable for capital expenditure. So the points made by EA Chairman Chris Smith are certainly consistent with the general principles of Project Assurance Guidance issued by Defra.
So,
I think the general evidence points towards the reality that we are in
an exceptional event and the playing of the blame game is utterly disingenuous by all sides. In the local context, it is wholly
understandable that people will adhere to a view propagated by certain
interested parties. At a political level it is always nice to be able to
blame somebody else, especially where Government guidance is a factor
behind decision-making. In this case, some politicians seem to be far
more willing to shoot from the hip and pretty wildly in the direction of
a supposed enemy. The tragedy is that their target is the science of flood risk
prediction and management. We could avoid the current problems, but I
doubt that even in the current situation the political masters would
sanction diversion of long-term resources from the defence of London,
York or Worcester – or perhaps even Windsor and Eton which seem to be at
risk at the moment.
My
biggest gripe lies with the press who seem to be doing their level best to
stir up emotions and to propagate the blame game. Only this morning
there was a resident of Windsor on Radio 4 responding to inquiries about
the local situation. They reported that flooding normally occurs on
the opposite bank but this time the problem was more extensive. When
asked 'who do you blame' they immediately responded that it was the
Environment Agency's fault and that they should have been dredging the
Thames!
I
fear rational discussion will not occur until some of the vested
interests, and people with an axe to grind, are isolated by sound science
and measured reflection. The big issue now is whether there is scope for
a sensible discussion about future-proofing the main villages on the
Levels and about the degree to which the public is going to commit extra
funds on a continuous basis to allow the status-quo to be maintained. This is not going to be a one-off event, so maybe it is
time for a shift in political approach and a wake-up call to all about
the implications of climate change (anthropogenic or otherwise) – it is
going to involve a combination of too much or too little water at
increasingly frequent intervals! We are stuck with existing climate
change and can only guess at the long-term situation because models are
generally pretty poor at providing accurate estimations of future change
- their accuracy drops off very rapidly regardless of how well trained
and validated they are!
This
winter's floods have the potential to pit the Somerset Levels against
the Severn Valley and the Upper Thames in a mad rush for new Government
funding and re-allocation of existing funds. That may not bode well for
those coastal communities hoping for upgrades of coastal flood defences!
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